Monday 16 January 2012

Our short remains open, +0.4% MTM. Main move to come..

Given that much of the market reaction to S&P's downgrades was priced in as early as November , we are yet to see a material move in risk asset prices. Indeed, some commentators argue that away from "priced-in-ness", the most pressing and worrisome issue is the continued crumbling of Greek PSI talks.

EURUSD ripped the most on Friday as signal that the plight of the world's most shorted currency appeared to be ending. A strong rally early against USD and other 'dollar currencies' (AUD etc) had signalled an end-to-the-trend and the bull argument seemed to tempting for some as EURUSD hit 1.287. But it was precisely these technical factors that contributed to such a sharp fall as the rumours began to manifest - stops were hit and limit orders triggered, causing further selling.

Our best read today: Here's Why Downgrades of European Nations Are Still Important

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