The house Macro view here is that whilst the Euro area remains fundamentally flawed - and therefore we expect another leg down - immediate technicals remain robust. Money market and short dated liquidity now must find another home in a ZIRP/NIRP environment and corporates are increasingly the targets. This has a read through to all risk assets.
Yesterday, we exited the full Silver position (a legacy from last Thursday when XAGUSD was trading in the mid 26s) in the AM, well ahead of Bernanke's conference. QE 3 is totally off the radar now and Silver is subject to appalling technicals - taking ~80c was the correct call 95 times out of a 100. The probability of near term QE is down into the single digits. However, we are still happy with the R/R in defending the 26 glass floor and expect to re-enter our position shortly.
In low volume/volatility markets we turn to swing trading single names: idiosyncracies and corporate themes. "The search for another CEDC."
On the agenda: LINE, JAPAF, VXX, VIX and keeping an eye out for downside risk catalysts.
75% flat, up 4.4% this July.
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